Chikungunya in the US: two months into 2015

I predicted that chik would become an issue in the US and be as much as a problem as West Nile virus. The two are related viruses and share the same vectors (common mosquitoes) so you could potentially be coinfected (that would suck). In 2014, there were only a few locally acquired cases in the US. There have been no local cases in 2015 so far - BUT - it's winter. And winter means the vectors are asleep in much of the US and this winter in particular means they are sleeping even farther south than normal. I suspect we'll have a number of local cases this year in the southeast - most likely Florida. 

Two months into 2015 and there has been 43 cases of chik in travelers coming back to the US. These cases have been peppered across the US (see figure) but the majority have been in Florida (n=12) and New York (n=9). I have not seen where these cases were identified to their origin. There has been one local case in the US Virgin Islands so we can assume it is established there. 

http://www.cdc.gov/chikungunya/geo/united-states.html

Cases, outside the US

Costa Rica: 121 
El Salvador 138,617 
French Guiana 12,308
Puerto Rico 24,281
Antigua + Barbados + Cayman + Jamaica 5000

So here's a prediction: we'll see a spike next month as spring breakers go down to the islands to escape the heat and Florida thaws. 

Fun, fun, fun. 

Disease Prediction: Chikungunya comes to the US

I'm not a trained epidemiologist but I do love reading about diseases. This is an extension of my interest in landscapes and how they affect organisms. I follow the infectious disease literature somewhat and I regularly listen to This Week in Parasitism and This Week in Virology. I also subscribe to Promed Mail - a listerv that sends out infectious disease news. 

There has been a small outbreak of Chikungunya in the Caribbean Islands that has currently reached 486 known infections. Chikungunya is caused by an arbovirus (short for arthropod borne virus) in the genus Alphavirus. Chikungunya infections are usually not fatal but they can cause long-term joint pain though most infections are cleared in a week. This disease is primarily found in se Asia, central Africa, and some parts of Europe. 

Why do I think Chukungunya is coming to the US? The virus is carried by mosquitoes are are ubiquitous throughout the Americas. All the virus needs to get a foothold in the US is for an infected individual (say a tourist) to bring the virus back to the Americas while the virus is circulating in their bloodstream. Then an "American" mosquito can bite the infected person, pick up the virus, and the cycle starts anew. Viola! Around 2004, Chikungunya started spreading out from locations around the Indian Ocean and has spreading globally since then with a large bump in 2007 that appears to related to a change in the virus (Staples et al. 2009). 

References:

Staples et al. 2009. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19663604